LOL! I will gladly revisit your comment in a year.
My bet is that MS will have walked away from Flight long before then... even if it is doing well... just like it has on all the MSF products.
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Geschrieben 07 März 2012 - 02:22
LOL! I will gladly revisit your comment in a year.
Geschrieben 07 März 2012 - 02:28
Geschrieben 07 März 2012 - 10:01
Ever heard of focus groups? You take your target demographics, show them what you're doing and get their feedback to see if the product flies with them. Base your estimates on that feedback along with the overall size of the demographic. It's not rocket science but certainly more than guess work. Just what you need to get million dollar budgets approved.
Wait a moment, as you already said they are trying to create a new market. How can you research a market that isn't there yet? There are simply to many variables involved so you should say what it really: Pure guess work!
Sure. I could do some things, but face it:
Today people normally don't have the problem that they don't have anything to do. They have to many options. I am not interested to reach the gold award. And exactly that is a fundamental problem for normal gamers. We are not in X-Box where certain awards give a certain status. In the PC world Live is insignificant! They are not the same market. A major problem since the whole department is in fact the X-Box department. I don't think that Microsoft would today give the go ahead for Flight . The project is pretty much isolated. As I already said: If they would have an X-Box Version the whole project would play a much bigger role.
In fact the project was initialized when there was a gigantic hope that DLC games would control the market in a short while. But in the mean time all conmpanies learned that most of these online games fail. Only a few games achieve the necessary market penetration.
If you look at the interviews the Flight team speaks about millions of people. So I wouldn't be surprised if Microsoft asks in a few months when
they have passed the first 500.000 users who regularly buy DLCs.
I think their prices are calculated in this direction. Look at hte Hawi Pack: Not only beautiful islands and the pretty good RV-6 model combined with some additional and pretty good missions. They have thought about this stuff. I think Alaska wasd in fact constructed at the same time, with the chance of some improvements when Hawai went into Beta Mode. But If you look around there are a lot of people who really expect that 6they will lower their prices.
It is obvious that most people don't understand how such projects work. They always think Microsoft does this, Microsoft does that. In fact most of these decisions are from the Flight Team. But they are not really in control. They are held responsible by the Entertainment division of Microsoft, which means today: X-Box! In a way they are Aliens in their own company. Not a good position. When Flight was initiated there were strong plans to Merge X-Box and the PC-Market to a unified Live Network People should play together even if they were on totally different plattforms.
If I look at the heavy fluctuations in their Entertainment Division the chances are pretty high that there are no longer any people in place that initiated Flight. IN fact I wouldn't be surprised if at that time Joshua Howard was not the Leader of the Flight team.
You might start to understand how the situation will be, when The Flight Team has to defend its project. They should have some pretty convincing numbers, when it is time.
They shouldn't be too shocked if the responsible people are in fact already in a battle how to distribute the Flight Budget among themselves. Think about what kind of exciting Kinect programs you could write with this money.
Flight must be in a position wherre they can really pay themselves, all their members, the Bills for the Marketplace and Accounting. Microsoft doesn't feel any responsibility dor a Flight legacy. Most of the responsible Managers probably don't know anything about it.
Now I get your point. I must admit, I find it rather unlikely that Flight would ever cover the entire world. And if they choose to do so to appease some hardcore simmers, the scenery may not be much better than what we have with FSX. But I bet that they will focus on certain areas for which they can produce content to tell a user story.
No, you have to read the interviews of Joshua Howard. He always complains that it was it a pretty crazy idea to have more than 20.000 airports in the world. But if you look at Hawai it is pretty likely that if they would ever reach world coverage, Flight would have more than 20.000 airports.
Geschrieben 07 März 2012 - 10:12
I don't know that the target demographic of Flight is, but I don't think an Avsim poll is represantative of it. Anyway, statistics can be interpreted in multiple ways, depending on what you're trying to prove. You can say 75% did not buy DLC yet or will need to evaluate that further, or you can say that 75% already bought DLC or consider doing it when the content is right...
The poll in the MS Flight forum on AVSIM is revealing. Roughly 66% of people who've tried Flight say they have not bought any DLC, and 75% say that they either do not plan on purchasing DLC (25%), or they will wait to evaluate DLC before committing (50%). One can speculate, I guess, that the Hawaii Adventure Pack doesn't do it for most of the early adopters.This does not sound like a very enthusiastic vote for Flight.
Geschrieben 07 März 2012 - 11:06
Anyway, I still don't get why so many people want to see Flight fail. If it gets more users intetested in serious sims, then its good for all of us. Third party developers' revenue may suffer short term, because some of the serious simmers who are using Flight will have to split their hobby-related budget between the platforms. But if more people come to those platforms in one or two years then all will be good.
Geschrieben 07 März 2012 - 12:51
how many more cities will you sell if they had night texture, I myself would have bought all of them if I could have fly over them at night.
Geschrieben 07 März 2012 - 13:31
Yep Matt, and once Flight provides that, it will be interesting to tot up how much money you have to spend to acquire it all. Meanwhile FSX comes with the world and a Baron already, so more money for beer.
Justice for the 96 15/04/89
Geschrieben 07 März 2012 - 14:28
Geschrieben 07 März 2012 - 17:41
Mathijs, don't get me wrong, I completely understand your point about night texture, it's a business decision on your part, I was just saying that I love flying at night so for me night textures is a must, I would have done the same thing as you if the market for night texture was not there.
I also agree that MS should be more open with their customers but hey they chosed not to.
Quote" They could not care less about a serious simulator at this moment. "end of quote. That's exactly what I'm trying to explain, so far Flight is not for the hardcore simmers but it does have a LOT of potential, MS is in business to make money, (are we not all in business to do the same) in the future if something specificaly release by MS for hardcore simmers is a success you can bet your shirt they will release more.
Geschrieben 07 März 2012 - 18:34
Base your estimates on that feedback along with the overall size of the demographic. It's not rocket science but certainly more than guess work. Just what you need to get million dollar budgets approved.
I think the whole purpose of Flight is to bring new users to the Games for Windows Live platform, users that have no XBox. And I dare to say that they are willing to accept a couple of millions in losses every year as long as enough new users are signing up and thus making the platform an alternative to Steam.
Geschrieben 07 März 2012 - 19:38
Geschrieben 08 März 2012 - 06:26
Geschrieben 08 März 2012 - 09:43
Geschrieben 08 März 2012 - 09:57
No risk, no fun, right? MS is not in the insurance business.
Simply look at the error ratings of these methods. If they try to minimize the errors it gets expensive. For such a small scale project and the diverse target group simply to expensive. Sure it is always claimed: We checked it, but look at it closely and you see for the most part a smoke screen. The people simply don't react as they usual do, so the resultsa can be totally meaningless.
They still need your credit card details. Selling at least one DLC to some percentage of the users would certainly be desirable.
Oh, I see, so Flight will be a great success and this means Steam is doomed?
Take a closer look. How does Flight help the Live environment?
They offer a free product, so users have to download it via the marketplace and Flight and Live install themselves together.
To get the Stearman you need.a Live account so you additionally get a special ID for this user and his computers.
You can show how the plattform can be used tu sell Download content.
You see the problem? "Flight" has already done this. There is no longer any bigger need for Flight in this purpose.
I don't think that DLCs sold is the only metric for success. You need to look at the bigger picture. Like I said, registrations for Games for Windows Live. Also, bringing users to Bing for the aerocache search. Maybe future Kinect sales if they ever make it working with Flight. That's what I can think of at the moment. But there may still be something behind door number three.
In fact I don't even think that Flight is entitled to any further funding by Microsoft. They financed the programming and the first three to four areas. Now this project has simply to keep its promises. And this can be done pretty easily. The Flight team simply gets a certain percentage if their sold downloads. They don't need to do anything else. They enabled the project to stand on its feet and now it has to take care of itself. If the money is not sufficient for their staff, they simply have to fire a few people and if the whole project collapses: Tough luck. It is simply one of the huger number of failed experiments. In fact this was the original purpose of this devision. They have a huge number of projects that fail. An example: the Zune player.
So you think because they have to fire some people that means they won't ever be able to produce additional content? That doesn't sound reasonable to me. You forget the fact that developers can be signed up to multiple projects and there are still freelance/third party developers in the game working as contractors if the rumors are true.
The project simply has to stand on its own feet.
An important point that many people might miss: A programmer in the US isn't really employed by company, but by his project.If his project is finished or he is no longer needed he has to fin a new project. There are internal boards that only members of the company can access,and internal company members have priority, but if you don't find a new project your company with the company is terminated automatically. In fact most of the programmers quit a project once their part is done and start in other projects or in other companies. So it is normally that many, especially better people change the project once their team leader can no longer guarantee that his contract will be extended.
For projects like Flight it pretty much means that the best people have left the project already. It is totally normal that a project has to fire people. In fact the tendency of people to change projects is so high, that for key projects they had to make a special class of contracts so that they don't think they can leave project when this version is done and someone forgot to tell them that they are needed for the next version.
Apple as an example calls them "Software Evangelists".
Geschrieben 08 März 2012 - 18:11
I don't think that DLCs sold is the only metric for success. You need to look at the bigger picture. Like I said, registrations for Games for Windows Live. Also, bringing users to Bing for the aerocache search.
So you think because they have to fire some people that means they won't ever be able to produce additional content?
Geschrieben 09 März 2012 - 09:11
You may see Flight's contribution as insignificant, I see it as one piece of the puzzle. Flight alone won't save these projects, but it brings new users that may not be reached otherwise. I don't think I would have ever signed up to Games for Windows Live hadn't it been for Flight. And once they have my credit card details, the next purchase is always one mouse click away.
I see the bigtger picture, but exactly since I see the picture I see how ingsignificant Flight is there.Live needs much more and bigger projects to be even recogniced compared wi6th Steam. The use of Bing doesn't matter to Bing in any way. It only avoids angry remarks why they would be so stupid not to use Bing. This is simply expected from a good Microsoft program.
I still don't think they have fired so many staff members that they won't be able to produce enough content to keep people hooked. They may have fired some people who worked on the core platform, but getting rid of almost all the people who are able to create DLC or extend the platform base doesn't sound like a plan to me.
Not quite as simple. It is more complex.
They have to reduce their staff which means less updates and less DLC that they can present in a certain time frame. This doesn't really help their sales since some people get bored and simply don't see the new DLC.
on the other hand there is the key problem. The remaining stuff has to do more and different things, so some people get more capabilities and experience and are qualified enough to join other, more prestigious and better paid projects. They have to be replaced, so you have to employ a new member. What most people don't realize this doesn't help at once. It takes between three to sic months till you can really use the new one effectively while on the other hand more experienced people must make time to teach the new member.. This means: more delays for DLC. the money that previously was sufficient for one year now has to last for 18 months, which means you have to fire more people, your projects becomes even less well liked...and we begin again.
You don't find good qualified people outside of the project since there is no SDK and no free market where people can develop their own sceneries, planes or missions till they are on a level to become a professional. It is much morew difficult to get outside help too, since the project has shifted. They must be taught about the new limits and features. They probably don't have to relearn as for a change from FSX to X-Plane 10 but there are probably some changes and these changes will grow.
Geschrieben 10 März 2012 - 03:31
I agree that 33% is a little high. A 10% conversion rate would already be considered as awesome.
Geschrieben 10 März 2012 - 13:51
Looking at another point; it is estimated that 20 million people purchased flight simulator (most through stores)
If flight were to capture even 0.5 percent of a similar sized market (and remember the base program is a free web download) then they still are pulling in twice the revenue of the current market combined, all going to one company.........
Geschrieben 11 März 2012 - 10:11
Geschrieben 11 März 2012 - 11:26
And......... another domino falls. It appears that Flight may indeed have an SDK.
Geschrieben 11 März 2012 - 12:27
Geschrieben 11 März 2012 - 13:31
As for the other distinctions about completeness (notes, debuggers, sample code etc) unless you have inside information, neither you nor I know how detailed it is, but I have no doubt in MS ability to clean up and finish any such tools to any degree necessary at any time they decide to.
Geschrieben 11 März 2012 - 16:08
Geschrieben 11 März 2012 - 18:40
As dor your naysayers comment: Sorry, but contrary to you I know that about 70% of all Software projects are a failure. After a few years in the business you are able to interpret signals which mean trouble. Even the beta testers complained that the tests were cut short. In fact you can see these issues in the Jobs. There are many Jobs that you can't do with the current planes. An even bigger problem: The team leaders says one thing and the program shows something completely different. There can be only two reasons:
1. He had or has no real control about his team.
2. He only holds this position for a short time.
I can think of at least three reasons why Flight will never have a publicly available SDK:
Just my 2c...
Geschrieben 11 März 2012 - 19:56
We will have to see in a year or two, but it seems evident that they have some plan in mind for working with third parties should they decide to do so. In the meantime Curious 3rd parties may find their own means to produce at least limited content.
On the consistency and stability front I actually see where they are coming from, at least for now. As it is, too much 3PD stuff collides with each other. On the other hand, I don't see them being silly enough to try for a total monopoly, either.
I keep thinking apple store.
Geschrieben 12 März 2012 - 10:10
Geschrieben 12 März 2012 - 11:35
I just wonder with the complete rejection of FLIGHT by simmers, and their flooding of the interwebs of that fact...
Will MS do a double take, and maybe work on a real sim. It could have a very small team with a 3 or 4 year timeline. Maybe FLIGHT is just a stop gap until the real thing is done.
Geschrieben 12 März 2012 - 16:27
Geschrieben 12 März 2012 - 16:58
Hm, my bet is that any kind of 3PD involvement will be through contractual work or some other form of cooperation where MS can influence the development.
I don't think that MS will release a public SDK so <your least favorite addon maker here> can create a half baked addon and upload it to the Flight store without further approval (and I'm not talking about technical checks like Apple makes on their app store).
Geschrieben 12 März 2012 - 17:09
Geschrieben 12 März 2012 - 20:50
Prepar3d Professional Version - System Specifications
Geschrieben 12 März 2012 - 21:19
just to add that accidental finding from the Saitek Website
(i) obviously MS is willing to co-operate with and certify for at least "certain" 3rd party developers
(ii) it's even more amazing as this is probably not the standard gear of game kiddies
May you never lie, steal, cheat or drink. But if you must lie, lie in each other arms. If you must steal, steal kisses. If you must cheat, cheat death. And if you must drink, for god's sake, drink whisky!
Geschrieben 12 März 2012 - 21:29
That has nothing to do with a sdk. My (older) Saitek hardware (X52, Throttle Quadrants) ist Flight compatible too. You just need to assign a "joystick button" or "joystick axis"
Prepar3d Professional Version - System Specifications
Geschrieben 01 April 2012 - 09:14
Geschrieben 03 April 2012 - 03:44
Geschrieben 03 April 2012 - 12:48
New update to flight last night, more autogen density, apparently smoother controls too. Not much time to check it out, but the denser scenery was great and starting to push my system. This thing is a sleeper, like a 1,000 ft long snail, crawling slowly but surely. Watch out for it. I am very impressed, happy to wait for it to evolve more. Already it has great IFR features and the online component is a killer feature.
Here's my sick avatar, I did my best to come up with the weirdest look! Would prefer to have my pants up higher...
Mathijs, I love your approach to ageing. I'm only 21!
Geschrieben 03 April 2012 - 13:08
Geschrieben 04 April 2012 - 02:25
Geschrieben 16 Juni 2012 - 00:08
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